The future in the stars European policy-making and the exploration of the future : the Turkey - EU accession dossier

Abstract

The role of future exploration as a type of expertise in the policy-making process has increased in the past decades. Research about the relationship between future exploration and policy-making is largely limited to national policy-making processes, and there has not been much research of the European Union in this context. The aim of this empirical study is to provide insights about future exploration and policy-making in the European Union structures. Its main focus is on the Turkey-EU accession dossier; a topical issue on the European agenda today, as well as one with certain presumed orientation towards the future, namely Turkish membership. On the basis of the Turkey-EU dossier, closely related to EU enlargement policy at large, the ambition of this study is to derive meaningful conclusions for the wider realm of European policy-making. The study focuses both on the formal (institutionalized) methods of future exploration, as well as the informal ways in which the future plays a role in European policy making. Qualitative methods are employed to detect and analyse relevant policy-documents from the European Parliament, European Commission, and Council, as well as those from their subunits dedicated to enlargement policy. In addition, an inquiry of external future explorative bodies in the field of Turkey-EU relations is made to contribute to a comprehensive view of the existence of future explorations, as well as their role in policy-making. Interviews with three officials, active in the EU-Turkey policy-making process in different ways, serve to complement the analysis. Theoretical insights in relation to expertise and policy-making, as well as the more specific field future exploration and policy-making are employed to position the findings within their proper field. The realization that future exploration plays a very limited role in policy making regarding the Turkey-EU accession dossier is among the most important fınding of this study in relation to the formal role of future explorations in the EU. Furthermore, the practice of future exploration seems to be closely intertwined with the actual policy-making process, and the involvement of external agencies is marginal. About the more in formal relationship between future exploration and policy-making, it can be said in this dossier, the EU seeks to plan its future rather than explore it, primarily by establishing objectives and creating policy for the long-term.