Modelling study on post-stabilization dynamics of inflation in Macedonia

Abstract

The experience from and recorded observations on economy stabilization programs implemented worldwide have clearly shown that there is sharp difference between the inflation dynamics during the implementation of such programs and the one during the post-stabilization period. In this context, it is observed that after the successful disinflation, the inflationary process can no longer be explained using the traditional variables provided by the standard theory of economy. Following these empirically established regularity phenomena, this paper explores the possibility of identification of the inflation process dynamics via of the system-theoretic, by means of both the traditional statistics and Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodologies. The application of this theoretic approach is to the real inflation dynamics in Rep. of Macedonia in the post-stabilization period, second half of the 1990s.