The evaluation of electricity generation resources : the case of Turkey

Abstract

Electricity is the rising force among worldwide end-uses of energy. To meet the increasing demand, accurate policy decisions should be made considering each country's own dynamics. In fact, the selection of appropriate electricity generation resources necessitates the consideration of different aspects of the problem; hence, multi-attribute evaluation should be used. Topcu and Ulengin (2004) conducted a multi-attribute study to select the appropriate electricity generation resource in Turkey. To analyze the potential changes that may occur in electricity generation policy due to the recent dynamics in Turkey, the electricity generation resource selection problem is revisited in this research. Alternatives to be evaluated as well as the criteria to be used for evaluation are initially determined based on the synthesis of a literature survey and expert opinions. The alternatives are identified as solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, hydro, biomass, natural gas, coal, oil, and nuclear. The alternatives were evaluated using a new multiple-attribute decision making (MADM) approach based on the integration of Monte Carlo simulation, entropy, and Borda count methods. Besides updating data of Topcu and Ulengin, this new approach makes a significant contribution to the analysis stage as well. The results reveal that the primary electricity generation resources for Turkey should be a combination of renewable resources.