Conclusion and perspectives: Whither Turkey's accession?

Abstract

Negotiations on Turkey’s accession to the EU have begun in an obviously unfavourable environment. They have been launched at a time when more states have acceded than the EU can currently cope with. The present time is also characterized by EU citizens who have become alienated and therefore question the raison d’être of the EU. Politicians who prioritize domestic politics often use the EU project as a scapegoat. One outcome of this domestic politics first trend has been the negative results of referenda on the Constitutional Treaty in France and in the Netherlands. It is therefore uncontroversial to claim that the debate on the future of Europe is far from over, but rather has only just begun. In this fashion, the negotiations on Turkey’s accession have been greeted by their share of the unfavourable environment. Thus, everything indicates that Turkey’s accession will not be an easy process. Domestic political concerns on both sides will shadow negotiations on each and every chapter of the acquis and political issues, interwoven with economic and socio-cultural factors, will create further complexity. Taking into account that the negotiations are based on unequal positions and the EU politics of conditionality, the accession process may go on for years. The outcome will remain unclear until the very end, possibly with referenda in some EU member states on Turkey’s accession. On the other hand, after more than forty years of being an associate member of the EU, negotiations on Turkey’s accession are at last under way.